Historical Hurricane Seasons and Maybe Another?

Well we have had some very active years and we have had some not so active years. Everyone reading this will remember the 2005 Hurricane Season for the absurd amount of storms(28 total and 15 Hurricanes-top photo). Well you ask, what was the next? And could it have possibly been as active as 2005 had we had Satellites at the time? That year was 1933 (bottom photo).

You see if we had satellites in 1933 there is a good chance more storms would have been named in the Eastern Atlantic just like in 2005. Although, in my opinion naming these storms that will never effect land shouldn't matter in the first place.

But what this is showing is that active and destructive Hurricane Seasons happen. Historically they happen. The United States has actually seen a decrease in Hurricane activity over the last decade with the exception of 2005. If you can't see where I am going with this, it's that the ever changing climate that Global Warming weenies are portraying as the end of the world basically, isn't happening.

BUT, I think we are in store for another above average year this year. Everything that we look at to predict Hurricane Season is looking rather favorable. We'll never be able to predict with certainty but we're getting better! As for now all indications look like the East Coast has an above average chance of a direct hit from a Hurricane. The GFS model is already showing the potential 10 days from now. But that is too far too believe just yet!

Stay tuned for more blogs as the Hurricane Season heats up!!

Upcoming Cold for the East

The whole Global Warming thing is really taking a beating these last 2 years. Take a look at Saturday mornings forecast lows as per the GFS...

Yes that is LOW 20's in West Virginia!! And here is just how much BELOW NORMAL the East will be at day 3...

This snowfall will for the most part be in places above 2 thousand feet. It likely won't be snowing in Boston like this shows but for it to be almost June temps have to be extremely below normal for it to even be thinking about snow.

Since this was my first post in a long time I decided to keep it short. Enjoy!!

March? Cold or Not So Cold?

I'm going to skip this weeks storm for just this one post and show you something! I've seen some facebook meteorologists and so on say that after this storm Winter is over and boom it's spring time. Well I'm here to show you why I think they are completely wrong!

First map here is of the Euro Ensembles for 10 days out (March 12)...

Now this storm can do one of two things at this point, go NE from here and into the Great Lakes or again come off the Coast and Head to the NE! Now lets take a look at the PSD Ensemble (Physical Science Division-NOAA)...

Yes it is a little further East than the Euro Ensembles. And definitely a lot stronger. Granted this is still 10 days. But what I am showing you is that March could be the coldest March in nearly 2 decades!

The JMA (sorry no picture today) paints COLD for the ENTIRE US for the ENTIRE month of March! As does the EURO Ensembles. I'm starting to believe most Social Media Experts do not do very much research on anything. Now, I could be completely wrong but I have given 3 different models showing COLD for AT LEAST the first HALF of March. Oh I forgot to mention the Canadian Ensembles are ridiculously cold for the next 16 days everywhere EAST of the 3 states along the West Coast!

With this now you can determine what March might be like! Thanks for listening!

EURO vs. GFS: Who Wins Next Week?

Whether it looks like it on the Surface Maps or not, there are a lot of discrepancies between these two models right now! Most of it has to do with timing the energy. The first picture is of the GFS and its location out 96hrs...

 The storm is located where you see the white arrows. Now the GFS is usually fast and this case is no different. To explain my case here is the 12Z ECMWF for 96hrs out, also pointed out by white arrows...

That is a 500-700 mile difference between the GFS and EURO. I believe the GFS has a much better handle on this, right now! This is only explaining things so you can see this the way I am seeing it. With the position here on the EURO it's much slower which will allow it to dig further South than the GFS. If you can see the energry (noted by the pink and purple) over PA and Southern NY, if that doesn't move off to sea the storm won't go North. It will drive it off the NC/VA coast and strengthen there without moving further North.

This is showing a band of very heavy snow from Richmond to Baltimore at 132hrs. This then shifts East and then South. At this point temps are between 30 -36 degrees. Yes, snow can fall at 36 if a.) 850mb temps are cold enough b.) thicknesses are right c.) heavy precipitation doesn't give the snow a chance to melt.

This just a daily explanation of things. I'll post again for you tomorrow as data comes in! Stay tuned!

Friday Update

I've been seeing a lot of blogs post a lot of different things so I'm going to try and explain what I am thinking for next week region by region.

First, we'll start with Far SE Va and North Carolina:

The way the models are trending together I believe it will start as a rain event for these areas until the storm forms off the coast and begins to "bomb" out. I think it will then move just enough off shore and turn all of Virginia and most of North Carolina to snow, with the exception of the coast in Southeastern North Carolina.

Central and Western VA, West Virginia and Washington DC:

For you this could be one of the "BIG" storms. If you remember back to 1962 when Pickens Notch, WV got 60" of snow and DC had greater than a foot, this could be something like that...but not up to the 60"! I feel as though the "snow hole" is going to fill in for Western and Central Virginia into DC and people will be able to stop complaining!

One of the Meteorologists I follow is Joe Bastardi, he said a week before the the two Plains Blizzards that they were going to get years worth of snow in 10 days...and they did! He is now saying that about this particular region. Now he is not perfect but I do agree with what he saying and what the outcome could possibly be! We will be fighting the Rain/Snow line withing 30-50 miles of the Coast in Virginia for the beginning of the Storm.

I'll have some pretty maps for you sometime this weekend as things will inevitably change but this is my thinking as of now! THIS IS NOT A FORECAST JUST OPINIONS! Forecast will come out as we get into next week! SO DO NOT GET YOUR HOPES UP!

Thanks for reading!

P.S. I'll leave you with this map that shows the World as a whole 0.001C below average for February...can we have count that small amount in temperature? lol

March Forecast

Well with February ending BELOW normal for the CONUS (according to current CFS v2 temps) lets take a look at what March has in store!

According to the CPC this was their thinking as of February 21...

This is the most absurd thing I have ever seen. CFS 2-meter temp shows this...

I think this is more in line as to what is going to happen. The beginning of March is going to be COLD over the Southeast. Florida will see temps almost 15 degrees below normal! For the first 10-12 days or so you will be hard pressed to see many temps above normal anywhere East of the Rockies. The second half of March looks to warm up a little over the East to near normal or slightly above but the extreme below normal temps for the first half will probably make March the 2nd straight month of Below average temps!!

As for any precip, a storm will be coming from the Northern Rockies Monday down to around Oklahoma and then sweeping East. The Northern side of the storm will be producing snow. The ECMWF has the snow North of Virginia. In my opinion I see this shifting further to the South and sweeping across Virginia. There are also hints on the Ensembles of more storms the first and second week of March with the most impressive being around March 12 and 13. This storm could be huge from the plains to virtually all of the East Coast. But that's liable to change 100 times between now and then just want you to be aware! I won't get all technical here because most won't have a clue what I'm talking about so this is what ya get!

Thank you for reading and stay tuned!!

Long Range Update

Well the end of February into the beginning of March is going to be cold for a lot of the U.S. Here is the next 16 day temperature anomaly according to the GEFS...

Then you can see the tremendous trough digging into the South along the East Coast. Now look at the PNA (Top) and NAO (Bottom)

With the NAO tanking and the PNA shooting up this is prime for another East Coast storm! This is still 10 days out but the first week of March looks to be another stormy time period according to the NAO and PNA.

Right now the GFS at this time period points to a more positive tilt than a negative one so it's not showing much of a storm but it did the same thing with the Blizzard 10 days out. This time period bears watching for the next 5 days to see if the Operational models come around to what I am thinking. Stay tuned!!