March? Cold or Not So Cold?

I'm going to skip this weeks storm for just this one post and show you something! I've seen some facebook meteorologists and so on say that after this storm Winter is over and boom it's spring time. Well I'm here to show you why I think they are completely wrong!

First map here is of the Euro Ensembles for 10 days out (March 12)...

Now this storm can do one of two things at this point, go NE from here and into the Great Lakes or again come off the Coast and Head to the NE! Now lets take a look at the PSD Ensemble (Physical Science Division-NOAA)...

Yes it is a little further East than the Euro Ensembles. And definitely a lot stronger. Granted this is still 10 days. But what I am showing you is that March could be the coldest March in nearly 2 decades!

The JMA (sorry no picture today) paints COLD for the ENTIRE US for the ENTIRE month of March! As does the EURO Ensembles. I'm starting to believe most Social Media Experts do not do very much research on anything. Now, I could be completely wrong but I have given 3 different models showing COLD for AT LEAST the first HALF of March. Oh I forgot to mention the Canadian Ensembles are ridiculously cold for the next 16 days everywhere EAST of the 3 states along the West Coast!

With this now you can determine what March might be like! Thanks for listening!

EURO vs. GFS: Who Wins Next Week?

Whether it looks like it on the Surface Maps or not, there are a lot of discrepancies between these two models right now! Most of it has to do with timing the energy. The first picture is of the GFS and its location out 96hrs...

 The storm is located where you see the white arrows. Now the GFS is usually fast and this case is no different. To explain my case here is the 12Z ECMWF for 96hrs out, also pointed out by white arrows...

That is a 500-700 mile difference between the GFS and EURO. I believe the GFS has a much better handle on this, right now! This is only explaining things so you can see this the way I am seeing it. With the position here on the EURO it's much slower which will allow it to dig further South than the GFS. If you can see the energry (noted by the pink and purple) over PA and Southern NY, if that doesn't move off to sea the storm won't go North. It will drive it off the NC/VA coast and strengthen there without moving further North.

This is showing a band of very heavy snow from Richmond to Baltimore at 132hrs. This then shifts East and then South. At this point temps are between 30 -36 degrees. Yes, snow can fall at 36 if a.) 850mb temps are cold enough b.) thicknesses are right c.) heavy precipitation doesn't give the snow a chance to melt.

This just a daily explanation of things. I'll post again for you tomorrow as data comes in! Stay tuned!

Friday Update

I've been seeing a lot of blogs post a lot of different things so I'm going to try and explain what I am thinking for next week region by region.

First, we'll start with Far SE Va and North Carolina:

The way the models are trending together I believe it will start as a rain event for these areas until the storm forms off the coast and begins to "bomb" out. I think it will then move just enough off shore and turn all of Virginia and most of North Carolina to snow, with the exception of the coast in Southeastern North Carolina.

Central and Western VA, West Virginia and Washington DC:

For you this could be one of the "BIG" storms. If you remember back to 1962 when Pickens Notch, WV got 60" of snow and DC had greater than a foot, this could be something like that...but not up to the 60"! I feel as though the "snow hole" is going to fill in for Western and Central Virginia into DC and people will be able to stop complaining!

One of the Meteorologists I follow is Joe Bastardi, he said a week before the the two Plains Blizzards that they were going to get years worth of snow in 10 days...and they did! He is now saying that about this particular region. Now he is not perfect but I do agree with what he saying and what the outcome could possibly be! We will be fighting the Rain/Snow line withing 30-50 miles of the Coast in Virginia for the beginning of the Storm.

I'll have some pretty maps for you sometime this weekend as things will inevitably change but this is my thinking as of now! THIS IS NOT A FORECAST JUST OPINIONS! Forecast will come out as we get into next week! SO DO NOT GET YOUR HOPES UP!

Thanks for reading!

P.S. I'll leave you with this map that shows the World as a whole 0.001C below average for February...can we have count that small amount in temperature? lol